Section 2 · Trade Review — What Has Worked and What Has Not
Scaffold — the full review is the next job; this is the ledger it will be built on. The API returns 13,762 fills from Jan 2, 2026 across 37 instruments, plus funding and ledger history back to Aug 2024. The headline: the account makes money scalping BTC and ETH in small size and gives it back three ways — fees on volume, funding on held longs, and HIP-3 stock longs held through drawdowns.
- 2026 resultClosed P&L +$617 · fees −$1,689 · funding −$477 → net realised −$1,549, plus −$794 unrealised on the open ETH short.
- The style13,762 fills for $6.7M of notional is a $490 average ticket; closing fills win 94.7% of the time (BTC 1,511 to 93, ETH 1,698 to 20). A scalper’s record — tiny profits taken thousands of times — under a 23× swing position.
- The costsFees were 2.7× the net closed profit. August alone cost $1,120 in fees on $4.5M of volume for +$269 of closed P&L.
- The losersSNDK −$4,201 (1,602 fills, $0.58M bought long vs $0.01M short), SPCX −$1,953, CL −$603 — longs into the summer rally — and TSLA −$853, PLTR −$512, the two shorts the account tried, both wrong.
- The winnersBTC +$2,615 (net +$1,377 after fees), BE +$2,165, HYPE +$1,500, ETH +$1,002 (net +$797), NBIS +$413.
- Funding−$9,635 all-time since Aug 2024 — ETH −$4,645, HYPE −$2,598, BTC −$1,221. 1.3× the current equity. The account has been the paying side of the perp for two years; the regime book’s tickets are chosen to be on the receiving side.
Fills 2026 · instruments · avg ticket
13,762 · 37 · $490
Closed P&L 2026 · fees · funding
+$617 · −$1,689 · −$477
Net realised 2026 · open uPnL
−$1,549 · −$794
Best / worst instrument (closed P&L)
BTC +$2,615 · SNDK −$4,201
Closing-fill win rate · overall · BTC · ETH
94.7% · 94.2% · 98.8%
Funding all-time (since Aug 2024) · ETH share
−$9,635 · −$4,645
Deposits · withdrawals (all-time)
$211.2k · $38.1k
Equity tonight · margin used · withdrawable
$7,537 · $7,016 · $0
2026 by Instrument
Closed P&L is Hyperliquid’s closedPnl on each fill · fees are fill fees · funding is the coin’s all-time funding (the 2026-only total is −$477) · wins/losses count closing fills by sign · lean compares open-long to open-short notional · sorted by volume| Instrument | Fills | Volume | Closed P&L | Fees | Net | Funding (all-time) | W / L | Lean | Active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 3,300 | $3.61M | +2,615 | −1,238 | +1,377 | -1,221 | 1511/93 | LONG L$1.44M/S$0.34M | 26-01-02..09-01 |
| xyz:SNDK | 1,602 | $1.16M | -4,201 | −75 | -4,276 | -73 | 619/67 | LONG L$0.58M/S$0.01M | 26-06-01..08-20 |
| ETH | 2,812 | $0.61M | +1,002 | −205 | +797 | -4,645 | 1698/20 | SHORT L$0.07M/S$0.31M | 26-02-05..09-02 |
| xyz:MU | 1,951 | $0.38M | +125 | −24 | +101 | -81 | 522/17 | LONG L$0.19M/S$0.00M | 26-06-05..08-10 |
| HYPE | 441 | $0.32M | +1,500 | −110 | +1,390 | -2,598 | 152/42 | LONG L$0.15M/S$0.00M | 26-08-19..09-02 |
| xyz:SKHX | 355 | $0.08M | +187 | −4 | +183 | -3 | 120/4 | LONG L$0.04M/S$0.00M | 26-07-28..08-07 |
| xyz:NBIS | 689 | $0.08M | +413 | −4 | +409 | -62 | 269/8 | LONG L$0.04M/S$0.00M | 26-06-21..08-21 |
| xyz:SPCX | 401 | $0.07M | -1,953 | −4 | -1,957 | -3 | 37/10 | LONG L$0.03M/S$0.01M | 26-06-12..08-21 |
| xyz:BE | 364 | $0.07M | +2,165 | −4 | +2,161 | -10 | 167/4 | LONG L$0.03M/S$0.00M | 26-07-28..08-10 |
| xyz:TSLA | 293 | $0.03M | -853 | −2 | -855 | +21 | 18/5 | SHORT L$0.00M/S$0.02M | 26-07-23..08-11 |
| xyz:DELL | 370 | $0.03M | +472 | −2 | +470 | -2 | 134/2 | LONG L$0.02M/S$0.00M | 26-07-13..08-21 |
| xyz:AAPL | 185 | $0.03M | +409 | −2 | +407 | +20 | 50/0 | SHORT L$0.00M/S$0.02M | 26-07-30..08-21 |
| xyz:AMZN | 94 | $0.03M | +556 | −2 | +554 | -10 | 58/3 | LONG L$0.01M/S$0.00M | 26-07-16..08-10 |
| xyz:MRVL | 150 | $0.02M | -316 | −1 | -317 | +0 | 17/4 | LONG L$0.01M/S$0.00M | 26-06-03..07-01 |
| xyz:PLTR | 90 | $0.02M | -512 | −1 | -513 | -83 | 0/2 | SHORT L$0.00M/S$0.01M | 26-08-03..08-07 |
| ENA | 10 | $0.01M | -74 | −6 | -80 | +86 | 0/5 | LONG L$0.01M/S$0.00M | 26-08-21..08-22 |
| xyz:CL | 146 | $0.01M | -603 | −1 | -604 | +8 | 0/3 | LONG L$0.01M/S$0.00M | 26-07-23..07-28 |
| km:MU | 62 | $0.01M | +187 | −1 | +186 | -10 | 36/1 | LONG L$0.01M/S$0.00M | 26-05-26..06-05 |
| xyz:NCLD | 21 | $0.01M | -219 | −1 | -220 | +2 | 0/2 | SHORT L$0.00M/S$0.01M | 26-08-10..08-22 |
| km:SEMI | 17 | $0.01M | +79 | −0 | +79 | -0 | 12/0 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-06-03..06-04 |
| xyz:UNITREE | 6 | $0.01M | -236 | −0 | -236 | +14 | 0/2 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-19..08-19 |
| xyz:NATGAS | 41 | $0.00M | +21 | −0 | +21 | +6 | 9/0 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-10..08-21 |
| xyz:AMD | 89 | $0.00M | -99 | −0 | -99 | -0 | 0/1 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-06-30..07-02 |
| xyz:XYZ100 | 13 | $0.00M | +52 | −0 | +52 | +74 | 7/0 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-03..08-10 |
| xyz:SHAZ | 22 | $0.00M | -21 | −0 | -21 | -0 | 0/1 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-10..08-12 |
| xyz:LYTE | 59 | $0.00M | -7 | −0 | -7 | +1 | 33/1 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-10..08-12 |
| xyz:HIMS | 15 | $0.00M | -36 | −0 | -36 | +0 | 0/1 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-10..08-11 |
| km:USOIL | 52 | $0.00M | -21 | −0 | -21 | -1 | 4/6 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-03-10..05-26 |
| vntl:ANTHROPIC | 39 | $0.00M | -65 | −1 | -66 | +5 | 0/1 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-05-16..05-26 |
| xyz:EBAY | 29 | $0.00M | +21 | −0 | +21 | -1 | 22/0 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-10..08-21 |
| xyz:ARM | 19 | $0.00M | +8 | −0 | +8 | +1 | 1/0 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-06-02..06-03 |
| xyz:SP500 | 4 | $0.00M | +7 | −0 | +7 | +0 | 1/0 | BOTH L$0.00M/S$0.00M | 26-08-03..08-10 |
2026 by Month
August: 5,183 fills, $4.5M of volume, +$269 closed, −$1,120 in fees — the busiest month was the second-best by closed P&L and the second-worst by net| Month | Fills | Volume | Closed P&L | Fees | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1,376 | $0.6M | -1,707 | −169 | -1,876 |
| Feb | 2,472 | $0.2M | -25 | −52 | -77 |
| Mar | 191 | $0.0M | -93 | −4 | -97 |
| Apr | 5 | $0.0M | -2 | −0 | -2 |
| May | 116 | $0.0M | -90 | −1 | -91 |
| Jun | 1,320 | $0.1M | +189 | −5 | +184 |
| Jul | 2,630 | $0.4M | +2,296 | −20 | +2,276 |
| Aug | 5,183 | $4.5M | +269 | −1,120 | -851 |
| Sep 1–2 | 469 | $0.9M | -220 | −318 | -538 |
Preliminary lessons (to be tested properly in the full review)
- The account makes money scalping BTC and ETH in small size and gives it back in three ways: fees on volume, funding on held longs, and directional HIP-3 stock longs held through drawdowns. SNDK alone erased 1.6× the year’s BTC profit.
- The two largest losses are HIP-3 longs in the memory/AI complex (SNDK, SPCX — the sector the Regime Book says is the rate loser), the third is a TSLA short (−$853), then a crude long (CL, −$603) and a PLTR short (−$512) — the two shorts the account has tried both lost. The stock trades have lost in both directions, which points at timing and fees rather than a thesis.
- The open ETH short is the first large short in the file and the largest position by a factor of ten; it is also the only position that has ever been within 2.2% of liquidation.
- Funding of −$9,635 all-time is 1.3× the current equity. The Regime Book’s tickets are chosen to be on the receiving side.
- The full review will add: round-trip reconstruction (entry-to-exit P&L per position rather than per fill), holding-time distribution, P&L by hour of day, and the 2024–25 history the API no longer serves for fills.